Analytics

The European Commission has unveiled the design of a joint issue of the commemorative coin for 2022 with a face value of 2 euros. The design of the coin was designed in honor of the 35th anniversary of the Erasmus program in Europe. The launch of this program took place in 1987.

Perth Mint has released a silver opal coin celebrating the Year of the Tiger. The product is minted as a proof. The reverse of the coin is decorated with real Australian opal. The coin was created from 31.1 g of pure silver of the 0.999th sample. Its diameter is 36.6 mm. Face value - 1 Australian dollar. The circulation of the coin is 5 thousand copies.

The independent research agency MAGRAM Market Research, commissioned by the World Gold Council, conducted a study in which Russian experts estimated the optimal share of gold in the portfolio of the average Russian investor. In their opinion, it is 10-20%.

The yellow metal exchange rate is maintained at a high level due to inflationary risks and low economic growth rates. Gold shows resilience amid volatility in financial markets. Towards mid-January, the yellow metal rose significantly in price.

The Austrian Mint issued two unique coins in 2022: one from the Alpine Treasure series called Wild Waters, and the other from the Microraptur gui series.

Even though 2021 saw a decline in sales, gold is still popular. India is the second largest yellow metal buying country after China.

The Perth Mint released a coin from one of the most popular series in the world - "Lunar." This is the third coin dedicated to the Year of the Tiger. The Lunar series is 27 years old. According to the regulations of the program, a coin with one of the 12 animals of the Chinese calendar is minted once every 12 years.

Gold is a sought-after asset because it is a great means of protecting savings from depreciation. However, the past year was not entirely good for yellow metal. Gold prices hovered in the $1780-1800 range. For the year, precious metal fell in price by 5% - from 1887.6 to 1794.3 dollars. As a rule, a high inflation rate should positively affect its rate. Therefore, many analysts were confident that rising consumer prices and low interest rates in 2021 would play in favor of the yellow metal. Gold has always enjoyed increased demand during periods of economic downturns. However, this did not happen in 2021. Investor interest turned to risk assets - securities and cryptocurrency, and did not decrease even against the background of accelerating inflation and new waves of the pandemic.

Gold market participants learned two important lessons in 2021: not to count on inflation alone and to consider the Fed's plans. The rise in the inflation rate prompted the regulator to tighten monetary policy and accelerate the reduction of the quantitative easing program. Therefore, the yield on short and medium-term bonds rose, which put downward pressure on gold quotes. Inflation expectations peaked in November. That means inflation fears have taken a little bit of a turn down, with investors believing in the U.S. central bank's ability to contain upward price pressures.

Favorable and unfavorable factors in the gold market

In the first half of 2022, you should not expect an upward trend in the gold market, but then there may be hope for a rally. At the moment, the main macroeconomic factors do not support yellow metal.

Tedros Gebreisus, head of the World Health Organization, said the coronavirus pandemic will end this year despite the rapid spread of the omicron strain. In 2021, a large-scale vaccination campaign began, which raised hopes of overcoming the pandemic in the near future. This, in turn, will lead to the return of normal living conditions of the population and an increase in demand, as well as the recovery of the global economy.

The inflation rate is likely to decline. Currently, the easing of quarantine restrictions has contributed to the restoration of the growth rate of production and supply chains. To quickly overcome the consequences of coronacrisis, the authorities will tighten fiscal policy. The Fed will stay on an aggressive monetary policy course for a long time to ease inflationary pressures.

Real bond yields will rise. The US dollar could strengthen against the euro as the European Central Bank (ECB) pursues a less aggressive monetary policy than the Fed. ECB economists unanimously believe that in 2022 consumer inflation in the European Union (hereinafter - the EU) will exceed the target of 2%. The rate of inflation growth will increase due to secondary risks, that is, the consequences of taking measures to reduce the initial risk. All members of the ECB's Governing Council agree that it is too early to talk about raising interest rates. If rates are increased, then some EU member states could be hit by a debt crisis.

There are a number of factors that can contribute to the growth of gold this year.

Financial markets recovered quickly after the pandemic began. However, the most depressing factor for the financial sector may be the tightening of monetary policy by central banks.

The emergence of new coronavirus strains will increase the degree of uncertainty regarding the prospects for the global economy and the pace of its recovery. In the medium term, there may be a significant correction in stock markets and downward pressure on the group of high-yielding currencies will increase, which will increase demand for gold. Experts are optimistic about gold. If the price of precious metal rises to $1835 in 2022, then its further breakthrough to the level of $1850 is possible.

Many investors in the gold market will gladly say goodbye to 2021, since during this period the precious metal has fallen in price.

Metals Focus (Great Britain) is one of the world leaders in the field of consulting in the precious metal market. Analysts of the company prepared a study of the gold market in India, which was conducted in more than ten cities of the country.