The Great Repricing: Why Gold’s March Toward $4,900 Signals a Structural Shift, Not a Bubble

Forecasts from UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank now converge around a dramatic but increasingly plausible scenario: by 2026, gold will trade between $4,450 and $4,900 per ounce, with realistic pathways toward even higher levels if geopolitical, monetary, or fiscal pressures intensify. What distinguishes this new outlook from previous bullish cycles is the recognition that gold’s rise is not a short-term reaction to volatility but a long-term recalibration of how investors and governments distribute risk in a more fragmented world.

UBS sparked a new round of upward revisions by raising its mid-2026 baseline target to $4,500 and its upside case to $4,900. The bank frames gold’s ascent as the product of multiple interacting forces: the worsening trajectory of U.S. public finances, the expectation of declining real interest rates, a fragile policy environment in the U.S., and geopolitical tensions that show no sign of easing. For UBS, the market pullbacks of early Q4 were misleading—they reflected technical momentum shifts rather than a weakening of fundamentals. Their view is backed by data: According to the World Gold Council, central banks have purchased 634 tonnes of gold this year, and UBS expects total 2025 accumulation to reach 900–950 tonnes, strengthening the metal’s price floor. ETF flows also confirm persistent appetite, with 222 tonnes of inflows so far and bar-and-coin demand exceeding 300 tonnes for the fourth consecutive quarter. Against this backdrop, UBS insists that global portfolios remain “underallocated” to gold and that a mid-single-digit allocation makes strategic sense.

Goldman Sachs reinforces this narrative with a more structural explanation: the gold market is simply too small to absorb even minimal diversification flows out of global bond markets. Their economists point out that global gold ETFs are 70 times smaller than the U.S. Treasury market, meaning that even a modest shift in private-sector allocations would create disproportionate upward pressure on prices. Goldman maintains a $4,900 forecast for the end of 2026 and highlights two dominant drivers. First, central bank buying has risen to a structurally higher level since 2022, when the freezing of Russia’s reserves forced emerging markets to reconsider the definition of a “safe asset.” Second, the coming Fed rate-cutting cycle should weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. Year-to-date, spot prices have already surged nearly 60%, supported by strong Western ETF flows and sharp demand increases from retail investors seeking protection from geopolitical and trade tensions. Goldman adds that in scenarios featuring fiscal instability or doubts about Federal Reserve independence, gold could outperform even its own bullish baseline.

Deutsche Bank adds further weight to the consensus by revising its 2026 forecast from $4,000 to $4,450 and projecting a trading range between $3,950 and $4,950. What stands out in their analysis is the supply-side perspective: central-bank purchases and ETF inflows now absorb such a significant share of annual supply that the jewellery sector is increasingly constrained. This structural tightening means that ETF inflows alone should maintain a strong price floor around $3,900 next year. Moreover, years of undersupply in silver, platinum and palladium—visible in elevated lease rates—suggest that the entire precious-metals complex is becoming more sensitive to gold’s upward momentum. Deutsche Bank’s longer-term projection of $5,150 in 2027 remains unchanged, reflecting the belief that global uncertainty is not cyclical but entrenched.

Retail and institutional behaviour in physical markets across Europe further validates this thesis. The Royal Mint reported a 102% year-over-year surge in bullion coin sales revenue during Q3, alongside a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase. Silver investment saw extraordinary momentum, with coin sales up 44% from the previous quarter and 83% year-on-year. Platinum investment reached an all-time high, while the Mint’s DigiGold platform recorded 156% growth in inflows. Notably, October saw a 70% rise in purchaser numbers, with average spending doubling compared to the previous year. These figures point to a rapidly expanding base of investors seeking security through hard assets. Interestingly, this strong U.K. demand contrasts sharply with the U.S., where bar-and-coin purchases fell to 7 tonnes in Q3—the lowest since 2017–2019—highlighting a regional divide in risk perception.

In the geopolitical sphere, China has introduced a new dimension with the announcement of an ultra-large gold discovery: a 1,444-tonne deposit in Liaoning province, the largest find since 1949. Although low-grade, the deposit represents a symbolic and strategic achievement, especially given the exceptional speed of exploration—just 15 months by nearly 1,000 state-employed technicians and workers. Yet even with this discovery, China faces an internal mismatch: in 2024, it produced 377.24 tonnes but consumed 985.31 tonnes, with bar-and-coin demand rising more than 24% year-on-year. The new deposit does little to ease the structural gap between domestic production and consumption; instead, it underscores China’s growing determination to secure domestic reserves as gold becomes central to national wealth preservation amid global currency risks.

The convergence of institutional forecasts, physical-market behaviour and geopolitical developments suggests a profound shift in how the global economy treats gold. Rising fiscal deficits, repeated geopolitical shocks, the weaponization of financial assets and weakening trust in traditional safe-haven currencies have created an environment where gold is no longer just a hedge—it is becoming a strategic reserve for both states and individuals. The movement of gold toward $4,900 is therefore not a speculative anomaly but a logical outcome of deep structural change. If private-sector diversification accelerates, as Goldman Sachs warns, even these ambitious targets may soon look conservative.